Greek election: the first exit polls

The first exit polls are now up, and while they aren’t reliable really, well, here they are, these are from MEGA channel, they’re mostly the same from one channel to the other:

New Democracy:  17.0-20.0% – (Right Center; the first party gets an extra 50 seats in Parliament)
Syriza: 15.5-18.5% (Left-wing)
PASOK: 14.0-17.0% (Centrist; the party elected into power in the last elections in 2009)
Independent Greeks: 10.0-12.0% (Right-wing)
Communist Party:  7.5-9.5% (Anti-EU/EZ)
Golden Dawn: 6.0-8.0% (Neo-Nazis)
Democratic Left: 4.5-6.5% (Left Center)

A party needs at least 3% of the popular vote to get 1 seat in Parliament.

LAOS: 2.5-3.5% (Religious Right)
Ecologist Greens: 2.5-3.5% (Environment)
Democratic Alliance: 2.0-2.8% (Right Center)
Action: 2.0-2.8% (Right pro-business)
Creativity Again: 1.9-2.5% (Grassroots pro-business)
Antarsya: 1.2-2.0% (Revolutionary Communist)
Other Parties: 2.0-4.0

Other information from the exit polls tells us that of the people who voted PASOK into power in 2009, only 35% of them voted for PASOK this time. And of those who voted for the top opposition party New Democracy in 2009, only 50% of them voted for ND again this time.

Both PASOK and ND got only around 10% each of the youth vote (defined as voters aged 18 to 57). Syriza and the Independent Greeks got the most there, as well as from the ‘late deciders’ (people who made up their minds in the last 15 days).

The first real results should start to become available in about two hours.

S and I have made our bets on the order in which we think the 24 parties on the ballot here will finish, as well as which ones will be in Parliament.

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